Saturday 25 April 2020
It is insane to ease lockdowns until reproduction number is below one
thanks to mathmatics if reproduction number is greater than one the virus will grow exponentially killing perhaps 20% of the population and totally destroying the economy. Once you have the virus under control (zero cases and zero deaths for 20 days) remove lockdown measures. As soon as you get any new cases go back into lockdown until there are no new cases.
Friday 24 April 2020
Virtual Reality is going to be big in the next 5 years
I'm now completely convinced Virtual Reality and Augmented reality will play a huge role in our future. So companies to look out for in this area - Valve, Microsoft, Facebook, HTC, HP, Samsung,Pimax, Sony. Maybe Apple, but they seem late to the party and Google seem to have stalled. Tesla is interesting for their neuro-interface. Though the need for cars will be reduced if you can virtually travel anywhere and interact almost as easy as real life.
Half life Alyx VR is the best gaming experience I have ever had.
Tuesday 21 April 2020
Half-Life Alyx Is Incredible!
The detail, story , immersion and excitement is out of this world! Simply wow!
Sunday 19 April 2020
Friday 17 April 2020
How much is one China person's life worth?
The lockdown in China has cost their economy about 1 trillion USD. Each year flu kills around 70k people in China, so one life is worth less than 14.3 million USD?
How much is one life worth?
I have heard in the UK they don't change an accident blackspot if the deaths per year saved are less than the cost of fixing it by 2 million GBP per person.
The very soft lockdown in HK has resulted in about 250 fewer deaths from flu than normal. Let's say the economy has suffered 2 billion USD. They don't have soft lockdowns in HK because of flu because the lives of 250 people are not worth 2 billion USD, or 8 million USD per person.
USA had approx 60k deaths from flu in 2019. So they don't do a 2 trillion USD lockdown for 60k people. So one person in USA is worth less than 33.33 million USD per person.
Thursday 9 April 2020
Tuesday 7 April 2020
model death predictions 2020
Current model:200k 21 april, 300k 29 April, 400k 5 may, 500k 11 May, 600k 17 may, 700k 22may, 1m 5 jun, 2m 8 jul, 3m 31 jul, 4m 18 Aug, 5m 2 sep, 6m 16 sep
Monday 6 April 2020
2030 predictions
2030 predictions in technology
As I had a touchscreen colour internet connected smartphone 6 years before the first iphone, a 42" plasma TV about 10 years before they were common and a wifi touchscreen 8 inch tablet 8 years before the ipad, here are some of my tech predictions.
Vast uptake of AI in everything. I had TiVo AI in 1999 making TV recommendations. Everything you do online will come with AI recommendations and pre-emptive suggestions - digital assistants are much smarter and actually useful most of times. AI analyses your daily routines and gives reminders without you setting them based on previous data. Like having a real butler.
China and USA continue to dominate AI advances. China dominates AI facial recognition. First self driving trucks operate commercially in USA. China launches a self driving city.
Road deaths reduced due to self driving.
Quantum computers start becoming more reliable and greatly improve total available computing power. TPUs, ASIc, FPGA and GPUs become more prevalent.
Computer graphics can now produce 2d videos almost ondistinguishable from reality. Big rise in deep fakes. This makes video and photographic evidence less useable in court cases as convincing fakes are so cheap and easy to make. Rise of fake video news. Businesses and quality of life for almost everyone improves due to cheaper and more powerful computing power. Most poor countries now able to rise out of poverty base lines due to improved world economy thanks in part to quantum computing and general advances in processors.
5G goes mainstream, replacing 4G. Self driving cars in some city centres - human driven cars banned in those areas. Surgeons and dentists use 5G to perform work using robots
Most menial jobs starting to be replaced by smart robots or kiosks. Cashierless stores become more common.
Cryptocurrency gets 5 times current adoption, paper currency use drops by 20% as payments mostly made by smartphones. Driving licences, public transport passes, credit cards all go mainly digital and connected to your phone.
Bitcoin and Ethereum evolve and develop quantum resistance and remain hack proof, though 3rd party software and centralised exchanges remain vulnerable to human insider hacks.
Almost all high end smartphones are foldable or rollable and convert into tablets. Multi Terabyte storage, 256GB Ram, 64 core cpu and dedicated raytracing GPU common in phones. 6G wireless network planned.
Folding smartphones replace small tablets, and big tablets start to replace laptops. Most laptops become multi function tablets.
VR makes big headways, and good systems only cost 200 USD.
Playstation 6 and Xbox 5th gen consoles do 120fps with ray tracing at 8k resolution. 5G game streaming becomes common. Valve finally announce they will release a game with 3 in the title.
Sony continues to dominate professional camera market by using AI and smart features.
Tesla dominates electric car market. Electric cars make up 10% of all sales.
Standard car screens are 18 inches with many other big screens across the whole dash and HUD, autopilot,360 view is standard
Smart watches become more useful due to foldable or rollable displays that enlarge.
Start of new battery technologies and greater uptake of solar. Electric cars fitted with solar roofs as efficiency now makes them feasible. Better alternative batteries to Lithium Ion start to appear in commercial use.
Hopefully nuclear fusion becomes viable - solving all our energy needs - making enough energy so cheap we can completely eliminate poverty, send a colony to Mars, make air,car travel 200 times cheaper
Everyone will have affordable multiroom audio systems like i had with Sonos in 2004.
Highdef audio streaming and 4k video streaming is common.
Increased cheap computing power and blockchain tech enable governments to become more demicratic (if they want) as election and referendum costs drastically reduced.
UK partially rejoins EU due to mainly economic reasons, though migration is less of an issue in a more digital world.
Number of digital nomads rises significantly.
Big tech companies face government mandated split and breakup as they stifle competition once they are too big, just like the big oil companies a century before.
Facebook hits 3 billion active users per month, up from 2.3 billion in 2019. Youtube not far off as well. So approx 37% of the entire world population or about 50% OF ALL ADULTS!
Big increase in technology is main factor in preventing world recession despite banks and governments over printing money and/or creating it out of thin air (quantitative easing).
Zombie companies propped up by fiat currency handouts will continue to fail as technologically better competitors take away their business and customers
Commercially available neural interfaces become common for people with disabilities. People without disabilities also use them to improve on the speed of data operations compared with using traditional smartphones and computers
AI starts to be able to make significant creativity gains in the fields of music and art and remain vastly superior to humans in almost everything else
TLDR: the world is changing at its fastest rate in buman history and this will be a force feedback loop so will change even more from 2030 to 2040 than from 2020-2030
China's social credit AI system might turn into the Chinese version of Cyberdyne and decide to take control of the world - re-watch the first 3 Terminator movies :)
Sunday 5 April 2020
Thursday 2 April 2020
Wednesday 1 April 2020
grow your own food
Probably a good idea to grow your own food (google 'indoor garden' if you don't have a garden). Exponential growth of the virus will affect food supply chains
Sadly exponential growth predictions are very bad if no vaccine or more lockdowns
Worldwide: 100k deaths by 10 april 2020
1m deaths by 28 May 2020
2m deaths by 21 jun 2020
3m deaths by 9 jul 2020
5m deaths by 3 aug 2020
10m deaths by 18 sep 2020
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